Backcountry Notes

As the price of energy climbs, the concerns of many American families have progressed from “Can we afford to go on vacation this summer?” to “Can we afford to heat our house this coming winter?”  For too many, the answer to both questions is likely to be “no.”

What do you heat with . . . electricity?  Natural gas?  Heating oil?  In any case, be prepared for a financial shock.  Home heating oil in particular will be costly; it is the same petroleum product as diesel fuel, which already is far ahead on the price surge.  In the winter of 2002-2003, the price of home heating oil in my area was $1.05 per gallon; this winter we will be lucky if it holds at the predicted price of $5.25 per gallon.  This is a five-fold increase.  A family with a modest house, using 700 gallons of heating oil per winter, will see its fuel bill soar to almost $4,000.00.  If the price rockets to $7.00 or better, as some predict, the cost will approach $5,000.00.  At that level you can expect working-class families, and a few middle-class families as well, to max out a credit card to keep warm.  Or be cold.

The economic collapse from unreliable, costly energy supplies may be slow, but it already has begun.  We can expect to see travel and tourism-related business laying off employees by mid-July.  Price-cutting to keep customers has begun already - - Biltmore House in Asheville, N.C., is offering price breaks; I am getting offer after offer, by snail mail and e-mail, from Orlando and San Antonio and similar travel destinations.  Here are more signs of things to come:

- - In Virginia, the Governor and the General Assembly are engaged in a running battle about how to increase road funding.  The need to maintain existing roads is a problem because of the increased cost of asphalt.  In current state and local budgets, there is enough money to perform about half of the roadway maintenance deemed essential.  In the Virginia Backcountry where I live, there is talk of letting some roads go from asphalt to gravel.

- - American Electric Power has applied to the Virginia regulatory authorities for a rate increase of about 23 per cent.  The call has gone out hither and yon to oppose the rate hike, but without increased revenue, AEP may not be able to buy enough fuel to generate at full capacity, so in all likelihood, there will be a substantial increase.

- - In the county where I live, the school board is confounded by the need to re-budget in order to buy fuel for its school buses.  The budget developed over the past term was based on $4.00-per-gallon diesel; the price is well above that already.  The current budget was also based on re-worked routes and on the elimination of much extra-curricular travel, such as transporting the school bands to “away” football games.  There’s virtually nothing left to cut.

- - In the North Carolina Piedmont, the famous communities of potters in the Seagrove and Sanford areas are looking on hard times.  These artisans are largely dependent on customers who travel by car; that traffic was down last year with $3.00 gas and this year it is likely to be worse.  There are more than 90 studios in the Seagrove area alone, most of them family operations.  Many of these potters fire their wares with propane.  They are traveling to more shows, but customers may not be plentiful there, either.

I could come up with many more examples, but these few demonstrate the depth and breadth of the problem.

Make no mistake about it: the problem is supply and demand.  Foreign producers couldn’t hold us up for price hikes if the supply were sufficient.  Terror attacks in Nigeria wouldn’t send prices jumping higher if we had an adequate domestic supply.  Oil companies wouldn’t be making nearly as much profit if they were competing to sell a good supply of products.  Speculators would not be betting on higher prices in the face of adequate supplies.  All of these things which we find convenient to blame are secondary aspects of the real problem: not enough supply to satisfy the demand.

While I certainly support and encourage conservation and alternate forms of energy, neither of these efforts will be enough if we do not have supplies of electricity and petroleum products which are reliable, stable, secure, and tolerably if not reasonably priced.  Research and development for alternate fuels and renewable energy technologies will suffer if our economy goes into free-fall; electric cars will be useless if we haven’t enough electricity to power them.

The Obamacrat plan to reduce dependency on foreign oil by half in the next 22 years is the prelude to two related disasters.  One is the national security disaster that results from buying too much petroleum from foreign countries; the other is the economic disaster that will result from an insufficient energy supply, regardless of source.

There are things we can begin to do now to avoid both of these disasters:

- - Drill for oil in this country - - there is a lot here, and Congress is standing squarely in the way of drilling.

- - Expedite the issuance of permits for coal-fired power plants using best-available clean coal technologies. 

- - Starting now, plan to build nuclear-fueled power plants on an expedited basis.

The Democrats have a litany of objections to these measures.  As noted already, they squawk that the oil companies should be forced to drill on barren leases.  Speak of coal-fired power plants and the answer is “polar bears!”  The mention of nuclear power induces responses that border on outright superstition and the demand that such plants be built only with a total guarantee that no single particle of radioactive material will escape into the environment, ever.

Such objections are ridiculous.  Will the polar bears be better off in a world where we can’t compete economically but dirty power plants can be built in India, China, Russia, and elsewhere?  France has a large nuclear power industry; are the French all dying of radiation exposure?  In both cases, I think not. 

As to the imbecilic claims that drilling now and starting now to build more, better power plants won’t get us out of the energy mess for a few years - - well, first, that looks pretty good compared to a plan which will get us halfway there in 22 years.  More importantly, a commitment to developing domestic sources of petroleum and building modern power plants will restore confidence in the future of our economy.  As it stands now, both the foreign oil producers - - especially those with hostile, nut-case leaders like Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - - and the speculators as well, are counting on a Democratic win.  They’re betting on it, hoping for it, hungering for it, because it will put them in a commanding position.  They know that alternate fuels and renewable energy cannot fill the gap.

One of my friends recently commented, “you’re beginning to sound like an alarmist.”  I replied, “Thank you!  You’re starting to catch on!”  This situation should be alarming to every American citizen.  We are on the brink of an energy crisis which threatens our national security and promises economic collapse.  Meanwhile, our Democratic leaders in Congress and their probable candidate for President are low on gas, speeding, and asleep at the wheel.

Related posts:

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In Obamamerica, There Won't Be A Middle Class

The Price of Gas: Pelosi Fixes The Blame

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