NOAA graphic of 2009 Atlantic hurricane season; click for larger imageWhere has all the weather gone? 

The Atlantic hurricane season has now ended with no hurricane having made landfall in the United States. The 2009 season was the slowest since 1997.  See Slow Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close. Despite predictions of a "strong tornado season" in 2009, tornadoes continue to occur well below the long-term average. 

NOAA Tornado Trend chart; click on image for larger versionThis is not the way it is supposed to be, at least according to global-warming theorists.  For years, we have been promised more and more bad weather, stronger "Cat-5" storms, and unprecedented spates of tornadoes.  Could it be that the climate situation is far more complex than has been presented and that the dire consequences predicted by global-warming adherents don't follow from the observable data?

On the one hand, I do conclude that the activities of mankind have an impact on our environment.  This has been true since humans learned to fell trees and to cultivate fields for crops, many millennia ago.  During the first 200 years of American settlement, most of the great eastern forest was clear-cut, and relatively little was left to regrow; had this not occurred, the climate of the Atlantic Coast states would be very different than it is today. On the other hand, nature has ways of re-balancing itself which are often beyond our ken.  Volcanic eruptions have saturated the atmosphere with sulfates, carbon dioxide, and particulates, causing short-term difficulties which then resolved.

Artic Sea Ice Extent; click on image for larger viewSo I remain a global-warming "skeptic."  Until the climate-change models have real predictive value, they are not a legitimate basis for making social and economic policy.  At this point, they less reliable than my copy of the Old Farmer's Almanac, which was right on point for November in my bailiwick, by the way -- mild, with average to somewhat above average precipitation. For the past decade, the climate seems to have been on a plateau; temperatures overall are somewhat cooler, icecaps are melting but sea ice, while lower than "normal," is holding its own, hurricanes and tornadoes are not laying waste to the coasts or the heartland. The earth and its climate are dynamic systems which we do not sufficiently understand and we need to take a more humble view of the matter than has been exhibited by the political class, both left and right.

RELATED ARTICLE: Where Has All The Weather Gone?

click on image for larger viewThe fourth month of the Atlantic hurricane season is coming to an end, with not even a tropical storm now in sight.  No hurricane has made landfall in the United States this season.  Meanwhile, Clemson University researchers have concluded that the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin is increasing, but there is no evidence that their individual strengths are any greater than storms of the past or that the chances of a U.S. strike are up. Hurricane frequency is up but not their strength, say Clemson researchers. If this season continues to be, shall we say, "mild," even the increased numbers may be questionable.

click on image for larger viewAt the beginning of the year there were predictions of a "strong tornado season" in 2009. Then, earlier this month, Canadian researchers reported that global warming does not appear to be increasing storm events.  And now for an inconvenient fact: tornadoes have occurred well below the long-term average through September of 2009.  See Tornadoes in 2009: Well Below Average Through Sep.

Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice is continuing to rebuild, contrary to predictions of an ice-free Acrtic Ocean.  Although none of this is consistent with global warming theory, neither does it "prove" that there is no such thing as man-made global warming to some extent.  It does indicate, in my humble opinion, that the situation is far more complex than has been presented and that the dire consequences predicted by global-warming adherents don't follow from the observable data.

click on image for larger view

Stay tuned.  The sky isn't falling yet .

I keep a link to the OFA in the sidebar of this page and you can go there to get a free short-range forecast.  For the whole story - - buy the almanac!  There's a lot more to it than the weather and if you like homespun tales and lunar-cycle gardening, this is the place.

RELATED ARTICLES:

When The Rain Comes Labor Day Update

Frost Warning

Wind farms -- coming to a scenic vista near you!

From today's Wall Street Journal, an article by Robert Bryce, author of "Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of 'Energy Independence'" (PublicAffairs, 2008):

A July 2008 study of the wind farm at Altamont Pass, Calif., estimated that its turbines kill an average of 80 golden eagles per year. The study, funded by the Alameda County Community Development Agency, also estimated that about 10,000 birds—nearly all protected by the migratory bird act—are being whacked every year at Altamont. . . .

Michael Fry of the American Bird Conservancy estimates that U.S. wind turbines kill between 75,000 and 275,000 birds per year. . . .

By 2030, environmental and lobby groups are pushing for the U.S. to be producing 20% of its electricity from wind. Meeting that goal, according to the Department of Energy, will require the U.S. to have about 300,000 megawatts of wind capacity, a 12-fold increase over 2008 levels. If that target is achieved, we can expect some 300,000 birds, at the least, to be killed by wind turbines each year.

Windmills Are Killing Our Birds. Yet the wind energy industry is never prosecuted for killing Federally-protected migratory birds, although traditional energy producers are prosecuted on a regular basis.

This is from an e-mail from a friend who has a long track record of conservationism:

If I thought Appalachian ridgeline turbines were an alternative to fossil fuel use I would be in favor of them. My analysis indicates that it would take a string of turbines from Harpers Ferry to Mount Rogers to produce the same power as Dominion's Wise plant during the peak demand month of August. Unfortunately the level of much of the debate reduces the issue to mountain-top removal versus wind "mills." Offshore and in the deserts makes more sense energy wise and perhaps environmentally. Development on forested Appalachian ridges is simply a tax shelter and a scheme to capture subsidies - in my view.

That would be some 500 miles of wind turbines. 

What is happening currently with alternative energy is a boondoggle, a fiasco, a travesty -- but it is all very politically correct, so none of that matters.

The Old Farmer's Almanac (a different publication) is just out and I'll be picking up a copy soon.  The Old FA also factors in sunspots. See How We Make Our Long-Range Weather Forecast.

click on the image to look for sunspots!

Anyhoo - - we had rain 6 of the last 7 days of July, bringing the total for the month to 7.46 inches (the long-term July average for Richlands is 4.38 inches).  This time last year, the Clinch River was way too low for comfort - - that's the town's water supply - - but now it's full.  Hopefully, the water tables have gotten some recharge; we're coming off five years of drought.

High temperature for July was 85̊F, low was 52̊F.  Nice.

click on the image to search for hurricanes!Maybe a more important story is where it hasn't been raining.  That would be along the southeast coast owing to hurricanes - - which haven't been there.  But according to global warming theory, we should be battered by monster hurricanes.

Oops.

Well, how about this one . . . the wheat crop in Cananda is down.  Because it is too cold.

Oops.

The image in the upper right is the face of the Sun on July 28.  See all the sunspots?

Not!

Frost Warning

The Baby Grand Has Arrived

The Sunspot Cycle

Arctic Sea Ice News

There doesn't seem to be a warming trend, or a cooling trend, in this case. Same for Lewisburg, West Virginia:

The spotless face of the Sun, May 10, 2009

I have reproduced the NOAA press release below. The normal parts are highlighted in green, the "spin" is highlighted in red. Read the green first, then the red, and see if you discern a difference.  Then compare the news articles linked below, with such headlines as "Solar storms ahead: is earth prepared?"