Backcountry Notes

For years, we have been promised more and more bad weather, stronger "Cat-5" storms, and unprecedented spates of tornadoes.  But here we are, more than halfway through the 2009 hurricane season, and we have yet to see as much as a Category 1 storm make landfall.  There have been tornadoes, but nothing apocalyptic.  Where has all the weather gone?

click on image for larger viewThe fourth month of the Atlantic hurricane season is coming to an end, with not even a tropical storm now in sight.  No hurricane has made landfall in the United States this season.  Meanwhile, Clemson University researchers have concluded that the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin is increasing, but there is no evidence that their individual strengths are any greater than storms of the past or that the chances of a U.S. strike are up. Hurricane frequency is up but not their strength, say Clemson researchers. If this season continues to be, shall we say, "mild," even the increased numbers may be questionable.

click on image for larger viewAt the beginning of the year there were predictions of a "strong tornado season" in 2009. Then, earlier this month, Canadian researchers reported that global warming does not appear to be increasing storm events.  And now for an inconvenient fact: tornadoes have occurred well below the long-term average through September of 2009.  See Tornadoes in 2009: Well Below Average Through Sep.

Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice is continuing to rebuild, contrary to predictions of an ice-free Acrtic Ocean.  Although none of this is consistent with global warming theory, neither does it "prove" that there is no such thing as man-made global warming to some extent.  It does indicate, in my humble opinion, that the situation is far more complex than has been presented and that the dire consequences predicted by global-warming adherents don't follow from the observable data.

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Stay tuned.  The sky isn't falling yet .